Arthur W. Chen

Arthur W. Chen

MBanFin candidate applying machine learning and textual analysis to commodity futures and climate risk. FRM.

Publications

Peer-Reviewed Journal Articles

Algorithmic Window Dressing: Disclosure Structure and Information Horizon Arbitrage

Published in Finance Research Letters (JCR Q1), 2026

Shows how the structure of a disclosure — not only its content — can be optimised against algorithmic readers, opening an arbitrage across the horizons at which different investors process information.

Recommended citation: Li, B.*, Chen, A.W., et al. (2026). "Algorithmic Window Dressing: Disclosure Structure and Information Horizon Arbitrage." Finance Research Letters, 108, 110485.
Download Paper

Can Soybean Tariff Shocks Trigger Abnormal Asymmetric Phenomena in Futures Markets? Evidence from the 2025 U.S.–China Trade Friction

Published in International Journal of Financial Studies (JCR Q2), 2026

Uses the 2025 U.S.–China trade friction as a setting in which tariff news arrived in discrete, well-identified announcements, and shows that soybean futures responded asymmetrically to escalation and de-escalation.

Recommended citation: Chen, A.W. & Zhang, Z.* (2026). "Can Soybean Tariff Shocks Trigger Abnormal Asymmetric Phenomena in Futures Markets? Evidence from the 2025 U.S.–China Trade Friction." International Journal of Financial Studies, 14(1), 1–25.
Download Paper

Working Papers and Manuscripts under Review

Trade Policy Shocks, Exchange Rate Fluctuations, and Agricultural Financial Risk Spillover: Evidence from Soybean Markets in China and the United States

SN Business & Economics — revised and resubmitted, 2026

Revised and resubmitted at SN Business & Economics. Separates the trade-policy and exchange-rate channels through which risk spills over between Chinese and U.S. soybean markets.

Recommended citation: Chen, A.W.* (2026). "Trade Policy Shocks, Exchange Rate Fluctuations, and Agricultural Financial Risk Spillover: Evidence from Soybean Markets in China and the United States." SN Business & Economics, revised and resubmitted.
Download Paper

Signals in the Noise: A Machine-Learning Approach to Pricing Alternative Information Shocks in Chinese Agricultural Futures

Journal of Futures Markets (JCR Q2) — under review, 2026

Under review at the Journal of Futures Markets. Asks when alternative and unstructured information carries priced signal rather than noise in Chinese agricultural futures.

Recommended citation: Chen, A.W., Chen, X. & Zhu, Z.* (2026). "Signals in the Noise: A Machine-Learning Approach to Pricing Alternative Information Shocks in Chinese Agricultural Futures." Journal of Futures Markets, under review.
Download Paper

Securitizing the Green Transition: Battery Supply Chains, Economic Security, and the Costs of Deglobalization

Alternatives: Global, Local, Political (JCR Q2) — under review, 2026

Under review at Alternatives: Global, Local, Political. Examines how battery supply chains became an object of economic security policy, and what deglobalization costs the green transition.

Recommended citation: Chen, A.W.* (2026). "Securitizing the Green Transition: Battery Supply Chains, Economic Security, and the Costs of Deglobalization." Alternatives: Global, Local, Political, under review.
Download Paper

From Local Climate Stress in China to Global Gas-Market Risk: Evidence for a Missing Channel in the Social Cost of Carbon

In progress — target journal: Energy Economics (JCR Q1), 2026

In progress; target journal Energy Economics. Traces how localized climate stress in China enters global natural gas markets through a channel that standard social-cost-of-carbon estimates omit.

Recommended citation: Chen, A.W. & Yuan, G.* (2026). "From Local Climate Stress in China to Global Gas-Market Risk: Evidence for a Missing Channel in the Social Cost of Carbon." Work in progress; target journal: Energy Economics.
Download Paper

Theses

The Market Effect of Trade War on International Soybean Market

BSc graduation thesis, University of Debrecen, 2025

BSc graduation thesis, University of Debrecen. Graded Excellent (5/5). The starting point for my subsequent work on tariff shocks in agricultural futures.

Recommended citation: Chen, W. & Adam, M. (2025). "The Market Effect of Trade War on International Soybean Market." BSc graduation thesis, University of Debrecen. Grade: Excellent (5/5).
Download Paper